Genesis
Response
Penultimate
Finale
March 28th, 2021
Many around the world simply assume that China will overtake the United States as the world’s premier superpower – and for good reason.
China’s economy has been roaring for 40 years. Already the world’s largest manufacturer, China is now advancing into cutting-edge technologies such as AI and 5G. Politically, the Beijing government is flexing its new muscle by expanding its influence in international institutions, like the World Health Organization, as well as through its own programs, such as the infrastructure-building Belt and Road Initiative. Looking at today’s China in the context of its long history, the country seems destined for superpower stature. One of the most remarkable features of Chinese history is how its political leaders were able to rebuild the pillars of China’s power after periods of weakness again and again. In that light, China’s modern rise resembles another imperial restoration, not so different from the formation of the Tang Dynasty in the 7th century or Ming Dynasty in the 14th century. However, as Benjamin Franklin noted, nothing can be certain except death and taxes, and becoming a superpower is certainly not on that list.
The U.S. maintains a significant advantage over China in just about every category – wealth, innovation, political clout, military capabilities, and “soft power,” or cultural pull. By comparison, China remains a middle-income country, still catching up in technology, and facing serious economic hurdles, including an aging population. Many economists worry that the current direction of Beijing’s economic policy – toward a greater state role – is the wrong one for the country’s future success. There is no guarantee that China can even surpass the U.S. as the world’s largest economy. Research firm Capital Economics recently projected that China would still be the No.2 economy in 2050. Nor can China match the U.S. in international affairs. Beijing lacks the close alliances with other countries that Washington can count on to extend its influence. China’s currency, the yuan, isn’t likely to contest the primacy of the U.S. dollar in the global economy anytime soon.
So even though the rise of China is the most important geopolitical story of the 21st century, the country’s dominance is not inevitable.
0 Comments
Follow Us
