Genesis
Response
Penultimate
Finale
October 7th, 2021
Niall and I are superbly good personal and intellectual friends, going back to the good old days before the Trump presidency and the COVID pandemic. I understand that he has been arguing that China and the US are already engaged in a Cold War. Though I have tremendous respect for Niall’s intellectual power and wisdom, I am afraid that I have to disagree with him on this.
I would strongly argue that China and the US are not and will not go to war, cold nor hot. My main argument is very simple: China and the US each have core interests that are not in conflict with one another, and instead can best be achieved with the help of the other side.
The first core interest of both countries is actually the same: continued economic prosperity with more inclusive distribution. On this point, frictions do exist, but the two economies are so interconnected that Niall called them Chimerica. Thus, continued trade and investment connections with necessary adjustments are to the mutual benefit of China and the US. A war hurts both sides.
The second set of national core interests is ideological. The US worries that its championship of Western liberal democracy will be undermined by China, as many countries may be attracted by China’s socio-economic success and begin to adopt similar practices. China’s core interest in this regard has been fully articulated like this: We have a governance model based on our unique history and culture; we want to be respected for this; but we are not asking anyone to follow our model. Thus, predicting that China and the US will go to war over ideological differences is like an absurd movie screenplay in which one drug gang has a shooting fight with another simply because the former wants to sell the white powder and the other refuses to do so.
The third dimension of the two countries’ core interests is territorial. The US wants to maintain its incumbent role in geopolitics and international affairs. China is not always pleased about this, but would never bother getting into a war about it. The most recent example is Syria. Though China has opposed the US-led military action, China has never bothered to shoot a single bullet in Syria. The main territorial issue is, of course, Taiwan. The overwhelming majority of the 1.4 billion mainland Chinese believe that Taiwan is just as much a part of China as Texas is of the US. And they seem to be ready to make any sacrifice for this. Meanwhile, Taiwan is as far away from the US mainland as any island in the world. Taiwan has significantly less strategic value to the US than even Vietnam of 1965. The US, as a liberal democracy that learns from its past, would never repeat its painful mistake of waging a war magnitudes more costly over a territory that is equally less significant than Vietnam. Rather, helping China resolve the issue peacefully would be reciprocated in kind.
My final point is not based on a calculation of interests—it is about emotion. Yes. Nationalism is on the rise in both countries, but one has to keep the big picture in mind. Over the past two centuries, the US has arguably been the most adored Western country in China. China was also an ally of the US in both world wars. Against this background, nationalism tapers off quickly. Let us look at history. While people were passionately protesting again the US as imperialists on the street, in a summer night of 1971, Chairman Mao told Doctor Kissinger, “I dream about your beautiful country and I want to swim in the Potomac River,” and this initiated decades of US popular culture in China and drinking coca-cola. Today, President Xi has said openly, “Maintaining a good China-US relationship is a compulsory course rather than an elective one.” History is a great teacher. I am sure my good friend Niall agrees.
0 Comments
Follow Us
