foreign policy

Should the U.S. defend Taiwan?

Council on Foreign Relations
Defense Priorities
Genesis
Response
Penultimate
Finale

David Sacks

Council on Foreign Relations

February 10th, 2022
The United States should defend Taiwan because failing to do so would severely undermine Americans’ security and prosperity. Geography matters, and Taiwan’s location is critical, as the island sits at the center of the first island chain, effectively bottling up China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). If China were to subjugate Taiwan and base its military on the island, it could more easily threaten Japan and the Philippines, two U.S. treaty allies. The PLA would also be able to operate much closer to the U.S. homeland and monitor U.S. military movements.
Economically, China would gain control of a dynamic high-tech economy that is the global epicenter of semiconductor manufacturing and the United States’ eighth-largest trading partner. China could be expected to leverage Taiwan’s assets in its bid for technological supremacy and even curtail U.S. access to advanced Taiwanese technologies. If this were to occur, American consumers would be hit with higher prices on everything from smartphones to computers and cars.
Politically, Taiwan is one of Asia’s few democratic success stories and demonstrates to the Chinese people that there is an alternative path of development for an ethnically Chinese society. If China were to annex Taiwan, however, its democracy would be extinguished and its 24 million people would see their rights trampled.
Beyond the immediate stakes, Taiwan’s fate has enormous implications for international order in the world’s most economically dynamic region. U.S. allies fully expect the United States to come to Taiwan’s defense. U.S. policymakers might believe they would be able to convince American allies that the U.S. commitment to their security is fundamentally different than its commitment to Taiwan, but that is wishful thinking. In Japan and Australia, officials have already publicly signaled that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would necessitate a response. Behind closed doors, officials from other Indo-Pacific countries routinely make clear they would view America’s response as a litmus test of its commitment to the region.
If the United States stood aside, its allies and partners would come to question whether they could rely on the United States for their security. Those countries would then contemplate either accommodating China or hedging against it by growing their militaries and developing nuclear weapons. Either development would result in diminished U.S. influence and increasing instability. Ultimately, unanswered Chinese aggression against Taiwan could very well lead to the unraveling of the network of U.S. alliances in Asia and precipitate the establishment of a Chinese-led order in the region most critical to America’s continued prosperity and security. Such a region would be far more closed to U.S. exports and investment, hurting America’s economy and ultimately American workers.
If China were to use force to successfully annex Taiwan, the United States would find it nearly impossible to prevent China from establishing regional hegemony in the Indo-Pacific. Such an outcome would be calamitous to U.S. interests, which is why the United States should defend Taiwan.
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